Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 78113.933437 82523.402252 86936.982648 91683.004277 96638.998200 101658.380657 107123.068776
2025-12-07 71268.853173 78013.617082 84956.894008 92629.032996 100859.127953 109412.881457 118965.301360
2025-12-14 65802.459141 74096.687974 82827.004144 92681.574491 103475.638861 114918.974796 127947.521949
2025-12-21 61747.128859 71204.263560 81345.596232 92997.107960 105980.295456 119969.008705 136146.475129
2025-12-28 59220.811027 69707.946235 81135.125431 94463.568431 109532.815260 125991.759310 145276.380364
2026-01-04 56845.297331 68170.340467 80690.284428 95492.593013 112446.785986 131189.632230 153405.047411
2026-01-11 54566.257689 66578.139663 80036.095629 96146.859936 114819.839320 135690.784873 160688.042247
2026-01-18 52244.935205 64797.698636 79040.226373 96290.770137 116507.426380 139335.560873 166942.139817
2026-01-25 50206.349100 63238.049200 78200.468825 96522.312046 118216.979142 142946.859642 173120.868980
2026-02-01 48172.231930 61584.652438 77160.639941 96434.255427 119480.775976 145988.027047 178603.629018
2026-02-08 46748.518513 60596.591081 76849.345060 97155.455818 121656.452487 150068.675865 185297.306321
2026-02-15 45037.345688 59183.669064 75960.724374 97121.901186 122881.100295 152992.476562 190607.398632
2026-02-22 44111.142538 58717.405475 76210.274210 98470.743849 125791.483734 157965.932900 198435.747023
2026-03-01 43001.452539 57977.771937 76088.830204 99338.735015 128105.417463 162230.062471 205442.960837
2026-03-08 41553.157808 56755.393870 75320.678699 99364.445820 129355.124597 165190.981953 210875.949332
2026-03-15 40338.104967 55784.153956 74824.773955 99691.819300 130948.592633 168554.690473 216800.388745
2026-03-22 39765.452287 55613.723720 75316.190017 101242.507917 134055.995834 173778.159083 225026.565038
2026-03-29 39020.269129 55187.865064 75457.623723 102331.189819 136576.417985 178283.904817 232393.256002
2026-04-05 38142.021023 54554.808080 75305.899024 103023.461446 138583.831680 182153.324343 238988.492620
2026-04-12 37076.473423 53637.733783 74755.562798 103175.724312 139886.052002 185135.340404 244485.433305
2026-04-19 36103.117954 52812.495951 74296.427652 103420.723186 141288.460264 188235.285530 250136.589109
2026-04-26 35036.914416 51828.695278 73598.982959 103327.547303 142235.162322 190749.844928 255053.352257
2026-05-03 34365.488490 51361.542956 73565.912690 104090.643097 144280.263869 194657.300054 261747.088174